我在海外说：从阿拉斯加，已经可以看出美国政府未来四年会怎么做

美国政府未来会有什么样的对华政策，甚至是对外的政策，相信很多人都很关心。就目前看来，结果是不会比特朗普时期好多少，但是也不会坏的。

原问题：How do you view the China-US peace talks in March 2021?

我的回答：

First, the conclusion.

The new US administration's inexperienced China diplomats are trying to put on a diplomatic show to boost the Biden administration's support in the US. The result was that the mask was ripped off by Chinese diplomats with extensive experience in diplomacy with the US.

I found the meeting actually quite boring; the US sent no diplomats who had dealt with China. The head of the Chinese delegation, on the other hand, has 30 years of diplomatic experience with the US, 12 of which have been spent living in the US. He even has good relations with former US presidents such as George Bush Sr.

A group of inexperienced people trying to play a group of people with a lot of experience. That was the situation at the time.

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The meeting was supposed to be an exchange of talks, that is, officials from the new US administration met with the top diplomatic echelons of the Chinese government to exchange views, listen to each other's views and then make decisions for the next step in diplomacy.

Neither side involved in the meeting was the top leader, and there was no need for them to argue.

American diplomats understand this too. And all the more reason for them to understand that before the talks, when they meet with journalists, everyone is making some courtesy talk. Disputes are settled during the talks.

But the US diplomats have completely violated conventional practice.

They made humiliating criticisms against China when the talks had not formally begun.

And as you can see from the footage, when the US spoke, it even read a written script, which means that this practice was carefully planned and prepared by the US from the very beginning.

This kind of performance is of no real significance in the negotiations. The only thing that makes sense is that it can be used to show the US, and indeed the whole world, through the lens of media reporters, the so-called toughness of the US. A word to those who accuse Biden of being soft on China policy.

The inexperienced American diplomats wishfully envisage things in a rosy light. Thinking that China will not make a stand. So that the new US administration could demonstrate its supposed toughness towards China at home, and indeed in front of the world.

Strictly speaking, Blinken, the new US Secretary of State, lacks sufficient diplomatic experience in dealing with big countries. His more than two decades of diplomatic experience have been in the Middle East, either with very weak countries or with US allies, so Blinken is used to the illusion that other countries will listen to him.

But this time it was different, opposite Yang Jiechi, who had thirty years of diplomatic experience with the United States in his working life. He had started his diplomatic career as a junior staff member of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, working his way up to Ambassador to the United States, Vice Minister in charge of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs with the United States, to Minister, and now State Councillor with the rank of Vice Premier. He has lived in the United States for 12 years before and after. It is no exaggeration to say that he has known no less a number of senior Americans than Blinken.

In this case, as you can see, Blinken read from a script, while Yang Jiechi played completely off the script. After Yang Jiechi's speech, the US side clearly lost its initial assertiveness.

The most interesting thing is that the US side, afterwards, actually issued a statement saying that it knew beforehand that China would be tough. This one made everyone laugh. It is perfectly clear from the video footage that at least a few diplomats were passing notes to each other when the US side was confronted with the tough reply from China, which was obviously not expected beforehand.

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Returning to this meeting, at least a few things became clear to China.

1. This US administration, more than anything else, likes to put on a show. It shows that the US government is actually not sure of itself when it comes to China.

2. This term of American diplomats lacks experience in diplomacy with China.

A further conclusion can be drawn

1. Because it lacks sufficient confidence in itself and will even try to gain more support by putting on a show, then the Biden administration will not change anything about Trump's so-called sanctions against China in the longer term.

2. Because the US diplomatic top brass lacks experience in diplomacy with China, they are also unlikely to take too drastic and substantive measures, and at best will continue to put on a show. (It is actually clear when you look at this US administration helping Australia to speak up. Mouthpiece)

3. In the foreseeable future, a group of diplomats with no experience of world powers and no core values will not be able to make too much of a breakthrough in substantive relations between major powers, except for acting.

In short: the continuation of Trump's policies will not be a significant breakthrough, except for some technical details.

先说结论：

美国新政府的缺乏中国经验的外交官们，试图进行一场外交秀，来提升拜登政府在美国的支持率。结果却被丰富的对美国外交经验的中国外交官，给撕下了面具。

我发现这次见面其实很无聊的，美国派出的外交人员中，居然没有与中国打过交道的人。而中国代表团的团长，有30年的对美外交经验，其中12年生活在美国。甚至跟美国前总统比如老布什等关系良好。

一群毫无经验的人，试图去玩弄一群丰富经验的人。这就是当时的状况。

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本来这次会议，是一场交流性的会谈，也就是美国新政府的官员与中国政府外交高层见面，互相交换意见，听取对方的看法，然后为下一步外交做出决策。

双方参与会议的，都不是最高领导人，他们没有必要去争吵。

美国外交官也明白这一点。而且他们也更应该明白，会谈之前，在面见记者的时候，大家都是发表一些礼节性的谈话。争议是在会谈中解决。

但是美方的外交人员完全违反了常规做法。

在会谈并没有正式开始的见记者缓解，就发表了针对中国的羞辱性批判。

而且从画面中可以看到，美国发言时候，甚至是看书面稿子的，也就是说，这种做法，是美国一开始就精心策划和准备的。

这种表演，在谈判中是没有实际意义的。唯一有意义的是，可以通过媒体记者的镜头，向美国乃至全世界，展示所谓美国的强硬。给那些指责拜登对中国政策软弱的人一个说法。

美国那些缺乏经验的外交官，一厢情愿地把事情设想得很美好。以为中国不会有什么表态。这样美国新政府就可以在国内、乃至全世界面前展示所谓的对华强硬。

严格说来，美国新任国务卿布林肯，缺乏足够与大国打交道的外交经验，他的二十多年外交经验都是在中东，要么是很弱小的国家，要么是美国的盟友，所以布林肯习惯了一种别的国家都会听他的错觉。

但是这次不一样，对面的杨洁篪，在他的工作生涯中，有三十年的对美外交经验，他的外交生涯是从中国驻美国大使馆的底层工作人员干起，一直干到驻美国大使、中国外交部负责对美的副部长，到部长，现在是级别相当于副总理的国务委员。他前后在美国生活了12年。毫不夸张地说，他认识的美国高层数量，并不比布林肯少。

这种情况下，大家也看到了，布林肯照稿子念，而杨洁篪完全是脱稿发挥。在杨洁篪发言后，美方明显失去了一开始的强硬态度。

最有趣的是，美方在事后，居然发个声明表示事先就知道中国会强硬。这个让大家笑了。从视频的画面中完全可以看到，美方面对中方的强硬回复时候，至少几名外交官是在互相传纸条，显然是事先没有预料到的。

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回到这次会议，至少让中国看清楚了几点：

1、这一届美国政府，更喜欢作秀。说明美国政府在对华时候，其实自己也没底，

2、这一届的美国外交官，缺乏对华外交经验。

更进一步的结论可以得出

1、因为缺乏足够对自己的信心，甚至会想通过作秀来获取更多的支持，那么拜登政府在未来较长时间内，不会对特朗普的所谓对华制裁措施有什么改变。

2、因为美国外交高层缺乏对华外交经验，也不可能采取太过激烈的实质措施，最多也就是继续作秀。（看这届美国政府帮澳大利亚说话，其实就明白了。嘴炮）

3、在可见的未来，一群没有世界大国经验的外交人员，也没有核心价值观的外交人员，除了演戏，在大国的实质性关系上，不会有太突破的表现。

总之：延续特朗普的政策，不会有明显突破，除了一些技术性细节。

美国政府这次在阿拉斯加，算是暴露其底牌了，就是拜登政府，对自己的执政基础缺乏足够信任，想想也是，双方的选票差只有几百万。

这种情况下，拜登做出系列讨好国民，维护他们自己形象的所谓外交秀，就不可避免了。

需要指出，我并不认同现在网上所谓的强硬对美政策，中国与美国的真实实力差距还很大，我们可以在原则问题上不让步，但是也绝对不能站出来挑衅美国。

我最近看到有些人说，这件事情出来，显示世界上有很多国家期望看到中国强硬、中国来反对美国。甚至说中国需要表现更强硬，甚至牵头反对美国。

我要说的是，这种现象是没错，但是要明白，“世界苦美国久已”，有一个国家出来牵头反对美国，肯定会缓解他们的压力。但是这对中国不利。

邓小平说的话现在依然是正确的，我们不当头，也不能当头。我们现在需要做的事情，就是在经济、科技发展上超越美国，有了钱，把军事力量发展起来。

现在别想太多。

想想吧，中国外交部发言人在推特上跟澳大利亚总理怼，阿富汗政府居然不敢出来说话，要知道被杀的可是阿富汗人啊。中国人在帮他们说话的时候，他们都不站出来。

这就是现实。

高筑墙，广积粮，缓称王

往期推荐

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具体能做啥，你们自己想吧